Welcome to 2009. The year of uncertainty. A time when people are feeling betrayed by the economic models and equations and forecasting that had given us our sense of security.

What Do You See Out There That Lets You Know it’s Monday?

A boy, looking out the window for signs of the future.

It’s the beginning of a new era as we swear in a President of the United States who was, just a few months ago, a long shot. As our world gets more uncertain, the desire to know the future remains constant: every business leader I meet greets me with the question, “What is your prediction for business for 2009?”

They want to know specifics about the stock market, about oil prices, about purchasing patterns, about global commerce. What they really seem to be asking is, “how can we avoid being blindsided? Which emerging forces should we be tracking right now to lead our companies toward a more certain and thriving future?”

It struck me that the skills that are required for businesses to thrive are less about the knowledge of one particular fact, or about keeping our eyes on one particular competitor. By definition, all of those measures are defined by what is, what was, or by what has always been.

The skills that are required for uncertain times should be driven less by facts and more by sensitivity and rapid response. The better approach for changing times should focus more on sensitivity to trends, the discipline of being prepared for adaptation, and the processes that lead to nimbleness.

The questions should be: “What am I noticing that could lead to change? Which factors might lead my company to extinction? Which factors open the window of opportunity to beat the odds, capitalize on the trends, gain momentum in the market, drive sales, and set our company on a path to growth? What can I learn from other industries that have faced these issues to improve my chances at success?”

We need to interpret differently.

Easier said than done?

Not necessarily. It’s a matter of focus.

When we focus all of our business processes and strategic planning efforts on absolutes and predictions, we sometimes make the assumption that double digit growth will come from taking a spreadsheet of 2008 and hitting: “multiply by 1.10″ and convincing ourselves that we’re all set for 2009.

Better to initiate the discipline of training ourselves and our co-workers to start to read the signals of what’s changing in our business environment, instilling a sense of urgency for considering how those shifts could affect our business, and pouncing on the chances to adapt to the changing environment.

Most experienced people see change coming. They are like the elephants before the tsunami who felt the tremors way before the storm. But if all of our measures are geared toward events that have happened, all of our measures will miss what’s to come. On the other hand, if we synthesize our gut sense of what the signals all mean, we can have a better starting point for responsiveness.

How can we become companies that know how to read signals, interpret, and take action?

I’m reminded of a scene from years ago, when my friend’s 4 year old son was standing at the window, looking out at the neighborhood at the beginning of the day. He looked out for a long time, and finally turned around and said, “Dad, just what is it about what you’re seeing out there that lets you know it’s Monday?”

What signs and signals do you see out there and what do you think your “Monday” is?